Navigating the Age of Turbulence: Reimagining the International System for a Sustainable Future

A Confluence of Crises

Our world is grappling with unprecedented challenges. From the devastating war in Ukraine and escalating geopolitical tensions to the climate crisis wreaking havoc across the globe, the 21st century presents a complex and turbulent landscape. The hottest years on record, coupled with rising sea levels and extreme weather events, are displacing millions and disrupting food supplies. Political polarization further cripples advanced democracies, while authoritarianism gains ground.

What distinguishes this era is the convergence of political, economic, social, technological, and environmental forces, creating a perfect storm of global challenges that transcend borders and defy traditional solutions. Adding to this complexity are three potentially existential threats: the accelerating climate crisis, a renewed nuclear arms race, and the rise of disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence.

As Roger Cohen of The New York Times aptly noted, "With inequality worsening, food security worsening, energy security worsening, and climate change accelerating, more countries are asking what answers the post-1945 Western-dominated order can provide."

Rethinking the Logic of International Relations

The current international system, built on the foundations of national sovereignty and self-interest, struggles to address these interconnected global challenges. As Peter Drucker warned, the greatest danger in turbulent times is not the turbulence itself, but "acting with yesterday's logic."

We must move beyond outdated concepts and embrace a new logic for the future. This includes recognizing humanity's interconnectedness with nature, embracing collaborative sovereignty, prioritizing the global commons, and fostering a more equitable distribution of power. This shift requires rethinking the role of the nation-state, prioritizing diplomacy and positive peace, fostering multi-alignment, and embracing strategic empathy over strategic narcissism.

The logic of the future demands a shift towards a wellbeing economy that values social and environmental factors alongside economic growth. It calls for global norms and regulatory regimes to harness the potential of new technologies like AI while mitigating their risks. We must prioritize human dignity, equality, and justice, eradicating the legacies of colonialism, racism, and patriarchy.

Building Blocks for a New Global Framework

Reimagining the international system requires a collaborative effort, with the United States playing a key leadership role. This involves remaking the United Nations to be more democratic and effective, including reforming the Security Council and strengthening the Secretary-General’s powers. A revitalized U.N. should be supplemented by a dynamic ecosystem of regional organizations, subnational networks, and polylateral alliances.

Investing in a new generation of diplomats trained in the logic of the future is crucial. Global trade and investment policies must prioritize equitable development and the provision of global public goods. Strengthening democracy worldwide is paramount, both within nations and within international institutions. The crucial U.S.-China relationship requires continuous, high-level engagement, potentially through a joint secretariat.

Finally, codifying the rights of nature and future generations will ensure long-term sustainability. The United States must embrace a transformed global leadership role, prioritizing collaboration, teamwork, and a full range of diplomatic tools.

From Turbulence to Transformation

The path ahead is fraught with challenges, but the need for change is undeniable. The Summit of the Future represents a promising first step, but sustained effort and global collaboration are essential. By embracing a new logic, fostering a spirit of caring and sharing, and building a more just and sustainable international system, we can navigate the age of turbulence and create a future worthy of generations to come.